Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble

July, 11  2019 // Bradford Cornell

In April of 2018, Rob Arnott, Shane Sheppard and I published an article entitled, Yes, It’s a Bubble, So What?.  Given the turbulence of the intervening fifteen months, and to hold our feet to the fire, we felt a follow-up was in order (Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble).  For perspective, both articles are available for download and comparison.  To summarize very briefly, we continue to believe that at current nose-bleed levels for stock prices, bubbles abound.  But that does not mean there are no opportunities for conservative buy and hold investors.  Download the articles and decide for yourself.

Recent Blogs

Why This is Such a Hard Time For Investors

In the forty years that I have been studying and participating in investment markets, the current conditions are among the most challenging.  That may sound odd - interest rates are...

Why Every Investor Should Remember Visicalc

For fun and edification, I keep a list of those tech innovators and products that have had the biggest impact on my life.  Near the top of the list is...

Bubble Stocks 2.0

In Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble, Rob Arnott, Shane Sheppard and I offered a real time definition of a bubble.  We stated, We define a bubble as having two characteristics. ...

How We Invest

Our thinking is based on the proposition that future cash flow is the ultimate source of value. Although this seems self-evident, we believe that situations arise in which market prices diverge from levels consistent with a rational assessment of future cash flow. Those situations serve as the basis for our investment decision making.

Recent Publication


Energy and Investing: Assessing the Political Risk

February 18, 2019 // Bradford Cornell

The public debate regarding climate change rages daily in the popular press and in the halls of Washington. This report takes a different tack and focuses on the investment implications of what we call the great transformation away from reliance on carbon-based fuels.

Our Team

Shaun Cornell, CFA

Managing Director

Andrew Cornell

Research Analyst and Chief Technology Officer

Bradford Cornell

Senior Advisor

Now Available

The Conceptual Foundations Of Investing

This book explains the conceptual foundations of investing to improve investor performance. There are a host of investment mistakes that can be avoided by such an understanding. One example involves the trade-off between risk and return. The trade-off seems to imply that if you bear more risk you will have higher long-run average returns. That conclusion is false. It is possible to bear a great deal of risk and get no benefit in terms of higher average return.